Is Waiting for a Housing Crash Costing You? Here’s What Experts Think

One of the biggest reasons buyers are currently sitting on the sidelines is the belief that home prices are about to plummet. Whether you are holding out for a better deal or terrified of buying right before a market drop, it feels safer to wait. But what if the housing crash you’re waiting for isn’t actually coming?

If you spend any time on social media, negative headlines might convince you that property values are plummeting everywhere. It is true that some markets are experiencing minor price corrections. However, data from Realtor.com reveals that home prices are still rising in 71% of housing markets across the country.

To cut through the noise and see where the market is truly heading, we can look to Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES). Every quarter, this survey asks more than 100 economists, housing experts, and market analysts to forecast the future of real estate. Despite today's economic uncertainty, the overwhelming consensus is clear: they do not expect a crash.

In fact, the average panel forecast projects that nationwide home prices will rise every year for at least the next five years. Even when breaking the panel down by sentiment, the most pessimistic experts still expect prices to climb by about 1% annually, while optimists project a 4% annual increase. The debate among experts isn't if prices will fall—it’s how fast they will grow.

This means waiting on the sidelines could be a costly mistake. For instance, based on the HPES moderate forecast, a buyer purchasing a $400,000 home today stands to gain nearly $40,000 in equity over the next five years from appreciation alone. If you choose to wait, you could end up paying $40,000 more for the exact same house down the road.

Broadly speaking, the bigger financial risk isn't a market crash—it’s waiting for a drop that never comes. Real estate is highly localized, so if you are trying to decide if the timing is right for you, let’s connect today to look at the data in our local market.